Bank of Italy confirms GDP forecasts, +0.6% in 2025

+0.8% in 2026 with US tariffs at 10%

The Bank of Italy on Friday confirmed its GDP estimate released in April: +0.6% in 2025, +0.8% in 2026 and +0.7 in 2027, driven mainly by the recovery in consumption.

The increase in tariffs and uncertainty will instead penalize investments and sales abroad, subtracting about 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth overall in the three-year period 2025-27, said the central bank.

The estimates assume an increase in US tariffs on EU goods of 10%, but if they were to return to the levels announced on April 2, growth would be lower by about two tenths of a point in 2025 and up to half a point in the next two years.